Early birds and late starters

They say the early bird gets the worm, but there are clearly a number of political types around Galway City and County who’ve never heard the maxim.

Of course, it wouldn’t be fair to tar all the candidates with the same brush. Some, such as Labour’s Niall McNelis, have been campaigning ferociously behind the scenes since before Christmas, while others, such as Green Niall O Brolcháin, have been upping their publicity and their visibility since long before that.

Whether you’re an advocate of the canvassing-is-everything method, or the publicity-gimmick way of doing things, there’s no doubt that being well-known early on is an advantage.

Even if a candidate is well known as a pillar of their community, becoming well known as a candidate as soon as is humanly possible, is crucial.

A lot of candidates make the fatal mistake of presuming people know they are running. Wrong. Nobody knows unless they are told – by the candidate, their campaigners, or the media.

And the protection, or even mentoring, of a political party is not always helpful in this. While Independent candidates can have trouble getting out there (lack of know-how is the main culprit here, but a lack of contacts and ‘party machine’ can also hinder Independents), those running for political parties can have even more trouble.

And there is a fair amount of evidence to suggest that this is the case, particularly for rural candidates.

One problem of running within the confines of the party system is that there is usually a sitting candidate who does not want a running mate. They, with minimum five years of contact with local VIPs and media, can make it very difficult for a new candidate to get a foothold.

Another is that political party ‘head offices’ are widely known to be very controlling. They have a strategy, they have a wider aim, and one candidate in Ballinasloe, or Tuam, or wherever, is not going to distract that.

As one party press officer admitted to me recently, “Sure we have hundreds of candidates, I wouldn’t have the names… could you not ring Cllr X?”

Cllr X, who clearly does not want upstarts ruining his chances, is not going to be the best advocate of his new ticketmates, now is he?

So there are candidates all over the country, not least in Galway, whose announcements are not making it as far as local press, who do not have photos of themselves for papers, and whose very existence is questionable, given that many of them don’t appear to have their own contact details.

With less than two months left to the election, candidates who are only now declaring are in serious trouble. While some, like Independent Daniel Callanan, have been strategically delaying their announcement in order to guarantee mounting suspense and more coverage despite being pretty much certain to run (a strategy that didn’t really work),

Uncharted waters

That we are in uncharted political waters – local, national, and international – is, by now, accepted. A black man in the White House, the EU in stalemate, a puppet Prime Minister in Russia, Castro on his way out in Cuba… and Fianna Fáil trailing in the polls.

The Irish Times poll published earlier this month, had unprecedented results. It showed a huge surge for the Labour Party, at 24 per cent, which appeared to have overtaken Fianna Fáil, which is now at just 22 per cent. Fine Gael was coming out in the lead, at 32 per cent.

Good news for the Opposition parties, or so it would seem. But will the figures translate into votes when it counts?

Galway has never followed the crowd when it comes to national polls, and it’s hard to know now if even national polls are reliable, when the mood of the country changes with every bank-related utterance from either side of the House.

In 2004’s local elections, the Progressive Democrats beat both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to the top of the class, getting 22.63 per cent of the quota in Galway City, running six candidates and getting three elected. Fianna Fáil received 19.19 of the vote in Galway City, and seems to have completely messed up its strategy, fielding eight candidates and electing just two. Fine Gael, with 17.05 of the vote, won seats for three out of its seven candidates, while Labour, with 16.49 per cent, made the most of its vote and had four candidates elected. The Green Party had 7.27 per cent, and elected one candidate, from three. ‘Others’ – Sinn Féin and Independents – got 17.37, and elected just one councillor, Daniel Callanan.

In 2009, the situation couldn’t be more different. The Progressive Democrats no longer exist, although their three councillors, now Independents, look set to retain their seats. But it’s questionable whether they will command the largest percentage of the vote this time out.

For Fianna Fáil, mirroring the Irish Times poll might not be a bad thing – it would up their vote in Galway by three per cent. The essential thing here is vote management. The infighting has already begun in the Central ward, and Mike Crowe is not a man to give away votes in Galway City East.

For Fine Gael also, vote management should be a priority. Their strategy will to build on the Government’s unpopularity, but this could be difficult, as their only new candidate with much of a profile is Hildegarde Naughton. While Naughton is a strong candidate, Galway City West’s councillors are strong and will be hard to shift.

For Labour, the big winner in last week’s poll, the choices are different. With three out of the city’s 15 seats already (having lost Catherine Connolly since the last election), in terms of the national poll they are already punching above their weight. Gains will be hard to make in what’s already one of the party’s strongest constituencies, where a core Labour vote left the party upon Connolly’s defection.

The party’s best chance is Derek Nolan in Galway City East, especially if Daniel Callanan runs in the West as rumoured. If Nolan can capitalise on the swing, he’s in.

Because Galway already had a strong Labour base, and a comparatively weak FF and FG representation on the council, it’ll be hard to see how the poll is reflected here. No doubt some candidates who are already canvassing will have seen evidence of the swing already.