The young and the restless

The votes are counted, the posters are being taken down, and there are a lot of elated and dejected candidates pondering their futures, in and out of the council.

As is the wont of Galway voters, Galway City’s ballot boxes threw up some surprises that we can only wonder at. Like elsewhere in the country, the Labour vote was up, resulting in a gain of two seats for Eamon Gilmore’s party, bringing that party to five councillors.

However, both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael stayed put with three councillors each, counteracting national patterns. Fianna Fáil actually improved on its 2004 vote in Galway, with a 20.7 per cent share, a jump of 1.5 per cent.

Fine Gael’s vote improved by 4.3 per cent but did not result in any seat gains, while Labour’s vote jumped by 2.6 per cent. Since Galway was already a Labour stronghold, the percentage gain is not huge, but clever candidate selection has resulted in a gain of two seats. It must not be forgotten that Catherine Connolly still attracts a strong Labour vote, and the next five years could see her rejoining the party, if a Dáil nomination is forthcoming.

The main feature of this election is the youth of the new candidates – all three of the new candidates in Galway City West are under 40, with Hildegarde Naughton the youngest at 32 and both Peter Keane and Níall McNelis just 36. In Galway City East, Derek Nolan is only 26, and in Galway City Central Ollie Crowe is 33.

Young councillors join restless ones on Galway City Council 2009 – 2014, and the noises emanating from all sides over the weekend suggest that the battle may have been won but the war is not over; all sights are now set on a general election, a contest that could really get interesting, given the formation of the new council.

Looking at the new makeup of the council, there are at least three restless councillors who could be serious Dáil contenders.

Catherine Connolly’s solid performance in Galway City West, her excellent reputation among voters and her personal brand could prove irresistible in any forthcoming general election, given current anti-Government sentiment.

If Labour does not bring her back into the fold, there’s a danger she could cannibalise that party’s vote, as her main competitor for leftwing votes in the city, Níall Ó Brolcháin, is out of the picture. Within the fold, a good vote management strategy could see her accompany Michael D Higgins to Dublin, if the tide really turns against Fianna Fáil.

One Fianna Fáiler against whom the tide definitely has not turned is Michael Crowe. Crowe is now the head honcho among the Fianna Fáil councillors, with brother Ollie and solicitor Peter Keane supporting him all the way. With their respective performances last week, a concerted effort could pose a very serious threat to Frank Fahey, who has lost his allies on the council, Mary Leahy and John Connolly. In 2007, Fahey just held onto his seat, but a strengthened Crowe could see him off.

In Fine Gael, the picture gets even more complicated, with Padraig Conneely hot to trot. Fidelma Healy Eames has been working the ground solidly since her failed bid in 2007, and will not be best pleased to be shunted out of the way in Conneely’s favour. It remains to be seen where Hildegarde Naughton, who surely has Dáil ambitions, will align herself, but long-term, she and Healy Eames could be competing for the same votes, so perhaps she would be better served by settling into the Conneely camp. Meanwhile, sitting TD Padraic McCormack still holds considerable influence within the party (as seen during the European election campaign, with disputes between his camp and Healy Eames’ disturbing the flow).

Between the young and the restless, Galway City Council 2009 – 2014 will have all the makings of a good soap: glamorous young people, controversial personalities, regular cat fights and even family feuds.

Uncharted waters

That we are in uncharted political waters – local, national, and international – is, by now, accepted. A black man in the White House, the EU in stalemate, a puppet Prime Minister in Russia, Castro on his way out in Cuba… and Fianna Fáil trailing in the polls.

The Irish Times poll published earlier this month, had unprecedented results. It showed a huge surge for the Labour Party, at 24 per cent, which appeared to have overtaken Fianna Fáil, which is now at just 22 per cent. Fine Gael was coming out in the lead, at 32 per cent.

Good news for the Opposition parties, or so it would seem. But will the figures translate into votes when it counts?

Galway has never followed the crowd when it comes to national polls, and it’s hard to know now if even national polls are reliable, when the mood of the country changes with every bank-related utterance from either side of the House.

In 2004’s local elections, the Progressive Democrats beat both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to the top of the class, getting 22.63 per cent of the quota in Galway City, running six candidates and getting three elected. Fianna Fáil received 19.19 of the vote in Galway City, and seems to have completely messed up its strategy, fielding eight candidates and electing just two. Fine Gael, with 17.05 of the vote, won seats for three out of its seven candidates, while Labour, with 16.49 per cent, made the most of its vote and had four candidates elected. The Green Party had 7.27 per cent, and elected one candidate, from three. ‘Others’ – Sinn Féin and Independents – got 17.37, and elected just one councillor, Daniel Callanan.

In 2009, the situation couldn’t be more different. The Progressive Democrats no longer exist, although their three councillors, now Independents, look set to retain their seats. But it’s questionable whether they will command the largest percentage of the vote this time out.

For Fianna Fáil, mirroring the Irish Times poll might not be a bad thing – it would up their vote in Galway by three per cent. The essential thing here is vote management. The infighting has already begun in the Central ward, and Mike Crowe is not a man to give away votes in Galway City East.

For Fine Gael also, vote management should be a priority. Their strategy will to build on the Government’s unpopularity, but this could be difficult, as their only new candidate with much of a profile is Hildegarde Naughton. While Naughton is a strong candidate, Galway City West’s councillors are strong and will be hard to shift.

For Labour, the big winner in last week’s poll, the choices are different. With three out of the city’s 15 seats already (having lost Catherine Connolly since the last election), in terms of the national poll they are already punching above their weight. Gains will be hard to make in what’s already one of the party’s strongest constituencies, where a core Labour vote left the party upon Connolly’s defection.

The party’s best chance is Derek Nolan in Galway City East, especially if Daniel Callanan runs in the West as rumoured. If Nolan can capitalise on the swing, he’s in.

Because Galway already had a strong Labour base, and a comparatively weak FF and FG representation on the council, it’ll be hard to see how the poll is reflected here. No doubt some candidates who are already canvassing will have seen evidence of the swing already.

Shame

This case has me absolutely gobsmacked.

A female, leftwing TD writes a letter verifying the good name of a rape accused's parents to the judge in his case.

I suppose Deputy Lynch being female and of the Labour persuasion shouldn't make a difference to me, but it does.

The blatant clientelism and "don't you know who I am-ism" of it. Everything Labour is supposedly against.

The blatant disrespect for the independence of the judiciary that it implies. Again, something the Opposition parties have spent the past 11 years berating the government for.

The fact that she believes the character of somebody's parents might have a bearing on whether they can be a rapist or not.

The betrayal of another woman that's involved.

Shame.